Will Omicron Slow the Real Estate Market Down?

 

Article From Realtor.com:

Omicron has indisputably put a damper on early 2022—and as COVID-19 infection rates continue to climb, many may wonder whether we’re headed toward another nationwide shutdown of schools, businesses, and other #lifegoals that may have just begun sputtering back to life.

Meanwhile, homebuyers who’ve vowed that this is the year they’ll finally buy a house might feel as if a wrench the size of a Mack truck was thrown into their plans. Will open houses even be allowed? Will home sellers pull their listings, thinking it’s not worth the risk?

In an effort to shed some light on the year ahead, we surveyed real estate experts on what homebuyers and sellers should expect in the coming weeks and months.

George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com, isn’t sure, but feels optimistic that omicron won’t halt the housing market’s momentum, particularly since this variant appears milder than its predecessors.

“We are not through it yet, but so far, this virus seems to be a lot more contagious, but also a lot less negatively impactful in terms of sickness and death,” Ratiu says. He also points out that data from epidemics in 1918 and the 1950s have also shown that viruses become more contagious but less severe over time.

Indeed, indications from South Africa, where the COVID-19 strain was first detected, showed a steep surge in cases followed by a rapid decline. So there’s some reason to expect that this latest wave of the pandemic in the U.S. will follow suit.

Omicron doesn’t seem to have hit the economy as hard as previous waves, either.

“There is huge demand, [but] there’s still short inventory,” says Bonnell. “I believe the first half of the year will be tighter with more bidding wars than the second half.” 

One reason omicron likely won’t slow down homebuyers is that so much of home touring today is happening virtually rather than in person. In 2020 during the first wave of COVID-19, video and virtual tours were more of a novelty that certain buyers and sellers resorted to when in-person viewing wasn’t safe. By now, though, virtual tours have matured into a far more sophisticated and commonplace experience.

While many experts anticipate that omicron will be more of a blip than a bomb on this year’s real estate forecast, the one real wild card is whether more variants are on the horizon.

“It’s hard to project, but on broad balance, we’re likely to see continued variants in 2022,” says Ratiu.

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